AVIATION

WHAT ARE THE KEY TAKEAWAYS?

Scaling sustainable aviation will hinge on expanding SAF supply, tackling contrails, and advancing long‑term technologies like hydrogen and electric propulsion
Innovation in 2026 is less about breakthroughs and more about industrialisation: deploying SAF, digital optimisation, and new designs at scale through major capital investment, infrastructure build‑out, and coordinated policy
System‑wide collaboration is essential, with emerging innovations – from new waste‑to‑SAF pathways and green‑methanol‑based fuels to AI‑driven aircraft design – helping to reduce emissions

What are the experts saying?

About the Aviation Impact Accelerator

The Aviation Impact Accelerator (AIA) is a collaboration between two key parts of the University of Cambridge – the Whittle Laboratory, a world-leading turbomachinery research centre, and the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL), with a 35-year history of working to help business, finance, and government to navigate global challenges. It works with industry, government, and academic experts to accelerate the journey to sustainable aviation by developing evidence-based tools and insights that support decision-makers to act. Core to this work is the development of a whole-system model that can help predict the impact of different interventions.

Edmund Dickens, Senior Project Manager, Aviation Impact Accelerator

What themes will be important in aviation innovation in 2026?

In 2026, I hope we’ll see progress on sustainable aviation fuels, contrail avoidance, and innovative aircraft design.

Alternative fuels, sometimes known as Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs), represent a key innovation designed to reduce the environmental impact of aviation, and are already in use – with the UK, EU, and other jurisdictions already legislating for minimum amounts of alternative fuels. Most current SAFs are made from waste fats such as cooking oil, but the supply of this feedstock is very limited. A key question will be how the supply and use of these fuels are scaled up.

However, not all options are created equal – and some have a more legitimate claim to ‘sustainability’ than others. The wrong approach could mean that aviation is driving a level of land use and energy demand that could worsen rather than improve its climate impact. How these issues are addressed in scaling things up will have a substantial impact on the future of the sector.

Another interesting opportunity is action on contrails – the clouds formed by aircraft that criss-cross the sky. These contribute around half of aviation’s climate impact. There’s increasing interest in strategies to avoid forming contrails, such as modifying the path of flights at particular times that carry the highest risk of contrail formation. Due to its coverage of key contrail-forming regions over the North Atlantic and its single air traffic control provider, UK airspace is particularly well suited to piloting contrail avoidance strategies. These pilots in the form of airspace-scale ‘living labs’ are key to unlocking greater action on contrails.

Finally, the long-term future for aviation will be shaped by the potential or otherwise of transformative technologies like electric aviation, cryogenic hydrogen, and hydrogen-electric propulsion, which could replace fossil fuels in powering the aircraft of the future. There is increasing interest in these new technologies and, although there is a huge amount of uncertainty, success could be transformational. This represents a huge economic opportunity for companies and countries to become leaders in the industries of the future, delivering skilled jobs and growth while demonstrating climate leadership.

About SkiesFifty

SkiesFifty is a unique global investment and advisory firm led by senior professionals from the worlds of aviation, sustainability, energy, and investing. It is focused on accelerating the transition to sustainable aviation, while simultaneously generating attractive returns for its investment partners. It works across finance and technology to turn ambition into deployable solutions that reduce emissions at scale. SkiesFifty’s approach is pragmatic and collaborative: backing credible pathways such as sustainable aviation fuels, carbon markets, and enabling infrastructure, while supporting airlines, investors, and governments to navigate complexity and act with confidence. SkiesFifty exists to bridge the gap between innovation and impact – helping the aviation sector move faster, smarter, and with real impact. It is part of The Fifty Group of companies, a network of businesses advancing sustainability through innovation, investment, and action. Together, they span sectors including aviation, shipping, clean fuels, carbon removal, venture capital, and structured finance – combining expertise and capital to accelerate the transition to a more dynamic and sustainable global economy.

Simon Talling-Smith, Partner, SkiesFifty

What themes will be important in aviation innovation in 2026?

Aviation innovation in 2026 will be defined less by lightbulb moments with new breakthroughs and more by the hard work of scaling and implementing existing innovations. The core technologies required to transform flight already exist. From the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and new airframe aerodynamics to AI-driven flight path optimisation and the electrification of ground operations, many of the technologies and innovations that will make a difference to net-zero aviation already exist. We anticipate a shift in focus towards adopting and scaling them to meet today’s commercial and climate realities.

At SkiesFifty, we often say “there is no magic bullet”. The path to sustainable aviation will be created through a portfolio of innovations, technologies, and projects. SAF is a foundational element, but its scale-up will take time, capital, and coordinated policy support. We will also see impact from the cumulative gains of lighter composites, next-generation engine designs, and smarter digital systems. In the medium term, carbon offsets will also play a role – and it is important that these are designed and managed with transparency and integrity. However, all these innovations face scaling challenges – and moving from a successful prototype to widespread global adoption requires significant capital injections, transformation of existing infrastructures, and a reimagining of the supply chain.

For the innovators and investors who can bridge this gap, the opportunity is immense. Decarbonising aviation is a once-in-a-generation value creation event. According to ATAG, the infrastructure required to deliver sufficient SAF alone will require an investment of up to $1.45 trillion by 2050. Those who successfully industrialise these solutions will capture a market that represents a wholesale migration of global energy capital.

This transition cannot be achieved by individual organisations working in isolation. Progress depends on new levels of collaboration – coordinated action across airlines, fuel producers, OEMs, airports, governments, and financiers. Decarbonisation is a systemic challenge, and collaboration is the primary driver of progress. Where incentives are aligned, momentum builds quickly; where they are misaligned, innovation stalls. This is increasingly urgent as sustainability moves from a narrative issue to a balance-sheet issue.

Although global consensus on climate regulation is deeply fragmented, navigating the regulatory landscape will nevertheless be a defining challenge for the industry. With frameworks like CORSIA transitioning into enforceable financial obligations, the cost of carbon is now a core business metric. While SAF and zero-emission technologies are scaling, high-integrity carbon offsets will remain a necessary bridge.

Three Innovations to keep an eye on

INNOVATION ONE:

Could dairy farms be a new source of SAF?

US startup Circularity Fuels wants to tap into the waste generated at farms, landfills, and wastewater treatment plants to create affordable SAF and keep up with growing demand.

The Ouro maintains stable operations despite the contaminants commonly found in agricultural biogas.”

At the heart of the company’s solution is its proprietary Ouro Reactor. To start, an anaerobic digester breaks down organic waste at farms or agricultural processing plants to release biogas, which the Ouro Reactor, powered by renewable energy, then converts into synthesis gas (syngas) – a precursor to SAF. This syngas (a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen) is then transformed into liquid hydrocarbons in a process known as Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis. The resulting Synthetic FT Crude is then refined and blended, ready to be used as jet fuel.

Unlike conventional reformers, the Ouro maintains stable operations despite the contaminants commonly found in agricultural biogas. It is also 100 times cheaper than traditional gas-fired reformers and a fraction of the size, making it much more accessible to smaller-scale farms and agricultural sites.

In 2025, Circularity Fuels demonstrated the viability of its solution at a California Central Valley dairy farm. At the site, the Ouro Reactor efficiently transformed methane and CO2 from the farm’s covered lagoon digester – which would otherwise be flared or vented – into valuable biogas. Full commercial deployment is planned for 2026.

INNOVATION TWO:

Could green methanol unlock e-SAF?

Swiss startup Metafuels is working to make SAF more affordable, with a proprietary process it has dubbed ‘aerobrew’, which is built on an innovative catalytic system. The company’s starting point is green methanol, which is produced by blending renewably produced green hydrogen with carbon oxides (CO2 or carbon monoxide). Metafuels then converts this methanol into SAF.

Metafuels claims its process is differentiated from other SAF technologies by its ability to convert the green methanol feedstock into SAF with a significantly higher yield, which ensures efficiency and cost-effectiveness. The company’s solution can be used to replace conventional fuels without any reengineering, regardless of the size or type of aircraft.

Metafuels claims its process is differentiated from other SAF technologies by its ability to convert the green methanol feedstock into SAF with a significantly higher yield.”

The startup has successfully moved from lab research to demonstration and production scale-up. In 2024, it announced a partnership with European Energy to set up an e-SAF facility in Denmark, which will produce approximately 12,000 litres of e-SAF per day when operational. In 2025, it then revealed a further partnership with Evos Rotterdam to develop a second production facility in the Port of Rotterdam. This will also have an initial daily production rate of 12,000 litres. A planned second phase for the Rotterdam facility will then see production ramp up to 120,000 litres of SAF per day.

INNOVATION THREE:

Can new simulations help us to design in better fuel efficiency?

Researchers at the University of Surrey have developed AeroMap, a computational tool designed to improve aerodynamic drag predictions during the early stages of aircraft design.

This innovative approach estimates drag for various configurations at speeds near the speed of sound, achieving results 10 to 100 times faster than conventional simulations.

By streamlining the process, AeroMap aims to enhance aircraft safety and fuel efficiency while minimising costly redesigns and extensive wind tunnel testing. Its validation against NASA wind tunnel data confirms its effectiveness for modern aircraft designs.